(3,314 single-family permits in 2008, 33rd largest market in the country)
Traffic below expectations. Our buyer traffic index decreased to 31 in December from 36
in November, indicating traffic levels short of agents’ expectations (a reading below 50
suggests traffic below expectations). 62% of agents said traffic did not meet expectations,
25% said it exceeded expectations, and 13% of agents said traffic was in-line with
expectations.
Prices fall, incentives increase. Home prices fell in December, as our price index came
in at 44, up from 29 in November, but still below a neutral reading of 50, indicating lower
prices over the past 30 days. 62% of agents said prices were unchanged, 25% said they
were lower, and 13% said they were higher. Incentives also worsened, as our incentive
index increased to 44 in December from 32 in November, but fell short of a neutral reading
of 50. 62% of agents said incentives were unchanged, 25% said they were higher and
13% said they were lower.
Length of time needed to sell a home unchanged in December. Our time to sell index
increased to 50 in December from 32 in November, in-line with a neutral reading of 50,
suggesting an unchanged time to sell over the past 30 days. 74% of agents said the time
to sell a home was unchanged, 13% said it took less time to sell, and 13% said it took
longer to sell. We view an unchanged length of time to sell as a positive step towards price
stabilization.
Comments from real estate agents:
■ “People bought to meet the Nov. 30th tax credit deadline, so now there aren’t a lot
of people interested.”
■ “The lack of jobs and job uncertainty are keeping buyers nervous.”
NVR has the greatest exposure. NVR has the most exposure to the Cincinnati market,
as it represented approximately 3% of the company’s sales.
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