Monday, January 18, 2010
Princess Tea Party for 10
Friday, January 15, 2010
December National Housing Survey Report- Cincinnati
(3,314 single-family permits in 2008, 33rd largest market in the country)
Traffic below expectations. Our buyer traffic index decreased to 31 in December from 36
in November, indicating traffic levels short of agents’ expectations (a reading below 50
suggests traffic below expectations). 62% of agents said traffic did not meet expectations,
25% said it exceeded expectations, and 13% of agents said traffic was in-line with
expectations.
Prices fall, incentives increase. Home prices fell in December, as our price index came
in at 44, up from 29 in November, but still below a neutral reading of 50, indicating lower
prices over the past 30 days. 62% of agents said prices were unchanged, 25% said they
were lower, and 13% said they were higher. Incentives also worsened, as our incentive
index increased to 44 in December from 32 in November, but fell short of a neutral reading
of 50. 62% of agents said incentives were unchanged, 25% said they were higher and
13% said they were lower.
Length of time needed to sell a home unchanged in December. Our time to sell index
increased to 50 in December from 32 in November, in-line with a neutral reading of 50,
suggesting an unchanged time to sell over the past 30 days. 74% of agents said the time
to sell a home was unchanged, 13% said it took less time to sell, and 13% said it took
longer to sell. We view an unchanged length of time to sell as a positive step towards price
stabilization.
Comments from real estate agents:
■ “People bought to meet the Nov. 30th tax credit deadline, so now there aren’t a lot
of people interested.”
■ “The lack of jobs and job uncertainty are keeping buyers nervous.”
NVR has the greatest exposure. NVR has the most exposure to the Cincinnati market,
as it represented approximately 3% of the company’s sales.
Monday, January 11, 2010
2009 Cost vs. Value Report: REALTOR® Magazine
2009 Cost vs. Value Report: REALTOR® Magazine
Uncertainty and restraint are the order of the day in this economy, and that sense of caution is reflected in home owners’ return on their investment in remodeling projects, according to REALTORS® in 80 metropolitan markets surveyed by Remodelingmagazine for this year’s Cost vs. Value Report.
The majority of the 10 remodeling projects with the best return on investment nationally are a testament to pragmatism. Six of the 10 projects—siding and window replacement using a variety of materials—involve home maintenance that costs less than $14,000.
Two more—adding an attic bedroom or a wood deck—reinforce the notion that boosting the amount of livable space in and around your home will attract buyers who are increasingly looking for more room for their buck. In past years, converting an attic into a bedroom was a project that landed squarely in the middle of the rankings, but this year it leapfrogged over other categories into third place. It’s an admittedly pricey project, with an average national cost of nearly $50,000, but it generates an average national return of 83.1 percent and a better-than-100 percent return on investment, according to REALTORS® in 14 of the 80 cities surveyed. Adding a wood deck is much more economical, with an average national cost of slightly more than $10,000. Its average national return is 80.6 percent, but in six cities, its return is estimated at 100 percent or greater.
The six siding and window home maintenance projects in the top 10, combined with the project with the biggest return on investment—a mid-range entry door replacement—prove something that every sales associate tells sellers throughout the country: First impressions count. A mid-range entry door replacement, a project new to the survey this year, is the only home remodeling project that REALTORS® expect to generate a full return for the money nationally. It’s the least expensive of the 33 projects included in the analysis, yet it brings a whopping average national return on investment of 128.9 percent. It generates a better-than-100 percent return in 48 of the 80 cities, according to REALTORS® surveyed, and in several cities, its return is estimated at more than double its cost.
Additional data prove the value of restraint. Upgrading kitchens and baths is still a smart bet. However, home owners will recoup the greatest share of their costs by foregoing super-deluxe projects in favor of mid-range kitchen and bath remodels. A mid-range kitchen remodel brings an average 72.1 percent return on investment, while an upscale kitchen re-do returns only an average of 63.2 percent of the money invested. A mid-range bathroom project has an average 71 percent cost recovery, but the average recovery on an upscale bathroom project is nearly 10 points lower, at 61.6 percent.
The only upscale projects that cracked the top 10 were the home maintenance projects of fiber-cement siding replacement and vinyl window replacement. The average cost of fiber-cement siding is more than $13,000, but its return on investment reached 83.6 percent, placing it squarely in second place in the survey. The average cost of vinyl window replacement is nearly $14,000, and it generates an average return of 76.5 percent, or tenth place in the survey. Of the 12 upscale projects, nine landed in the bottom half.
Overall, home owners recouped an average of 63.8 percent of their investment in 33 different home improvement projects, according to REALTORS® who responded to the survey. The expected cost recoup was generally down from previous years in line with the drop in home prices nationally (see page 23). The return on home owners’ investment in remodeling projects has declined an average of 3.5 percentage points between 2008 and 2009. That’s down from the 2.7 point drop between 2007 and 2008 and much less than the 5.5 point drop between 2006 and 2007 and the 10.5 point drop from 2005 to 2006.
Zooming in from the national to the city level, Honolulu sits atop the rankings for having the most projects—18—that generate at least a full return on investment. In Honolulu, adding a wood deck, completing a minor kitchen remodel, adding fiber-cement siding, and replacing an entry door bring the highest returns, ranging from 121.1 to 195.3 percent return on investment. San Francisco is closest behind with 10 projects generating at least a full return on investment. Adding a master suite, doing a minor kitchen remodel, and replacing an entry door have the biggest returns, producing between 112.2 and 119.1 percent return on investment.
One surprise: Despite the common perception that contractors are hungry for work and therefore willing to wheel and deal, the average national cost of every project surveyed has gone up, though at a slower rate than in the previous year.
View 2009-10 Cost Vs. Value Report. Data courtesy of Remodeling Magazine
Friday, January 8, 2010
Eye Candy for the Front Door
Vibrant colors, unique details, and seasonal accents can certainly boost a home’s curb appeal. Take a peek at a few ideas that will draw buyers’ eyes and get them inside.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Sellers Should List Homes Early
Selling a home in the dead of winter might seem ill-advised, particularly considering the state of the economy, but some experts think that making the decision to wait until spring to list the property could be a mistake.
Government incentives will likely have a big impact in 2010, with many buyers determined to sign a contract before the April 30 tax credit deadline.
“This year, we're anticipating sales will peak earlier,” says Nicole Hall, editor in chief of Lendingtree.com, an online mortgage comparison service. “The best time to get your house on the market will be February or early March, and maybe even earlier if you want to avoid competition.”
Traffic on real estate Web sites begins to rise right after the New Year, says Ken Shuman, spokesman for real estate Web site Trulia.com.
Source: Forbes.com, Francesca Levy (12/24/2009)
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Slowing Pace of Home Sales Raises Fears of New Retreat
The number of houses placed under contract fell sharply in November in the first drop in nearly a year, figures released Tuesday show. It was the clearest sign yet that predictions of another downturn in real estate may become a reality.
The National Association of Realtors said that its index of pending home sales plunged to 96 from a revised level of 114.3 in October. Analysts had predicted a drop, but nothing like that.
“We thought it would drop 2 percent,” said Jennifer Lee of BMO Capital Markets. “When you see 16 percent, the first thing you say is, what the heck happened here?”
Since the majority of pending sales become final in six weeks to two months, the index is considered a reliable indicator of where the market is headed. The index is calculated by comparing the number of pending sales with the level of 2001, when the index was formulated.
The data indicates that the weakest parts of the country are the Northeast and Midwest, both of which fell 26 percent in November from the previous month after adjusting for seasonal variations. The South dropped 15 percent, while the West was off 3 percent.
Ms. Lee called the drop from October to November “unnerving” but said that the index remained well above the level of a year ago. In November 2008, when the financial crisiswas at its peak and buying a home required a faith in the future that many did not feel, the index was 83.1.
As the overall economy improves and the employment situation grows a little less dire, the question becomes whether real estate can muddle through — or if it will need a new round of government support to ward off another damaging downturn.
There are plenty of reasons for worry. The Obama administration’s effort to compel lenders and servicers to modify loans has not been a success. Many of these owners will eventually lose their homes to foreclosure.
Meanwhile, a quarter of homeowners with mortgages owe more than their houses are worth. If prices start dropping again, some will be induced to walk away, further undermining the market.
“I wouldn’t rule out more stimulus, especially in an election year,” said Ivy Zelman, an analyst.
Last year’s stimulus efforts, however expensive and divisive, calmed a market where prices had plummeted by a third. Even now, the government’s efforts to push down interest rates and entice buyers with a tax credit appear to be having an effect, keeping a weak market from getting weaker.
Walter Martin and Paloma Munoz, artists in Dingmans Ferry, Pa., are a stimulus success story. They are paying $360,000 for a new home 10 miles away without even having an offer for their current home.
“The new home has enough space for us both to have studios,” Ms. Munoz said. “The price is amazing, we are getting a mortgage at a 5.125 rate, and we qualify for a $6,500 credit.”
It is a leap of faith, she acknowledged, but an eminently sensible one. “When houses were expensive, everyone wanted to buy, and now that they’re cheap everyone is scared,” she said.
Buyers like Ms. Munoz and Mr. Martin are outnumbered, however, by people who think the market still has room to fall. While some of these may indeed be scared, others simply see a virtue in patience.
“With two growing boys, we are busting out of our small house,” said Stephen Sencer, deputy general counsel at Emory University in Atlanta. “But I’m still waiting for sellers to capitulate.” His agent is telling Mr. Sencer that may happen in the spring.
Starting from a low of 80.4 last January, pending sales rose for nine consecutive months in 2009. The index proved a harbinger of both completed sales, which began climbing in April, and prices, which started rising over the summer.
As the Nov. 30 expiration of the tax credit drew near, would-be buyers hastened to secure deals. Sales in November roared at a 6.54 million annual pace, the highest since February 2007.
At the last minute, Congress extended and broadened the credit. The urgency immediately dissipated. “We were really, really pushing hard, and I think everyone just wore out,” said Steve Havig, president of Lakes Area Realty of Minneapolis.
Buyers now have until April 30 to qualify for the credit. Many analysts say the effect this time around will be mild.
“It could turn out the second credit has such a small impact it doesn’t show up in the data,” said Patrick Newport of IHS Global Insight.
Nevertheless, he predicts the downturn this time will be gentler. “The economy is improving, and that is what the market needs to get back on a sustainable path,” Mr. Newport said.
Long before the tax credit ends, another stimulus effort is due to disappear. The Federal Reserve has bought more than a trillion dollars of mortgage-backed securities in a successful effort to push down mortgage rates. The Fed is scheduled to wind down the program by March 31.
Rates are already moving higher, exceeding 5 percent in some lender surveys. Perhaps as a result, mortgage applications to buy homes in late December were a third lower than during the corresponding period in 2008, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.
The Fed’s Open Market Committee left itself leeway in its December meeting to start buying again, saying it “will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities.”
Rising rates could hamper Mr. Martin and Ms. Munoz’s search for a buyer for their old house.
“It’s been on the market for almost three months,” she said. “We have had very few viewings.”
Monday, January 4, 2010
Homefront January 2010
TIPS: PROTECT YOUR HOME FROM SEVERE WEATHER
When people think of winterizing their homes, most often their heating bills spring to mind - along with insulation and weather stripping. The winter months bring not only high energy bills, but also an increased chance of certain kinds of damage to your home and its contents.
A few precautions can help protect you from serious losses and disruptions this season.
Indoor floods
While home fires make headlines, water damage is more common and often just as severe. The most frequent cause is faulty or broken pipes. In fact, Fireman's Fund Personal Risk Consultants see a surge in water damage during the first three months of the year, when pipes are most likely to freeze and burst. Be sure to insulate exposed pipes.
If you leave your home to spend time in warmer climates or even just a weekend on the ski slopes, always leave the heat on in your home and set it to at least 55 degrees. Don't let high fuel prices tempt you into going lower. The pipes that come in through your foundation or run through external walls can reach temperatures much lower than the setting on your thermostat. Have someone check on your home while you are away.
A foolproof way to protect your home from broken or leaking pipes at any time of year is to install an automatic water shutoff system. Attached to your home's main incoming water line, the device senses increased water flow caused by a burst pipe and automatically shuts the system off. Fireman's Fund Insurance Company recommends the Leak Defense System from Sentinel Hydrosolutions. A 5 percent premium discount is available to policyholders who use this system, so let your insurance agent know if you install one.
Chimney and furnace fires
While fire presents a year-round risk, certain causes of fire occur more frequently during the winter. Chimneys, boilers and furnaces are particular risks. Approximately 25,000 residential fires begin in a fireplace or chimney every year, according to the Consumer Product Safety Commission.
Why so many? Over time, a layer of unburned carbon-based residues (sometimes referred to as fireplace creosote) builds up along the inside walls of your chimney and can eventually catch fire. The solution is to have a trusted, professional chimneysweep clean and inspect your chimney annually.
An annual inspection is just as important for those with furnaces and boilers. And, remember, your furnace room should never be used for general storage. Wood scraps, old books, paint, solvents and other flammable liquids are significant fire hazards and should be removed and stored elsewhere.
Ice dams and old trees
Snow and ice storms can create a number of potential threats to your home. One of these is ice damming, which occurs in the days after a snowstorm.
Icicles hanging from your eaves, while they may be beautiful, usually indicate that a dangerous ice dam has formed. An ice dam is a build-up of ice that can form at the edge of your roof when snow melts but is blocked from draining. When more snow melts and is trapped behind this ice, the resulting water backup can soak through your roof and cause damage to ceilings, walls and more. The most common causes of ice dams are clogged gutters and insufficient insulation, both of which are easy to remedy.
Mature trees on your property represent another potential hazard during storms. Strong winds or frozen water that covers old branches with a heavy coat of ice can lead to failure and collapse, a clear threat to your home or other nearby structures. Have a trusted horticultural expert take a look at your property's mature trees and prune or cut down unstable specimens.
For more advice on how to protect your home from winter's severe weather, visit www.firemansfund.com.
Courtesy of ARAcontent
Heather Herr
Email:hherr@comey.com Website: http://www.mycityliving.com
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